I'm going to start collecting data. If at any point it is obvious a change needs to be made, great. If not, then I may convince my self "working as intended".
In reading a lot about fizzle rate, it was used as a dps balance.
ALL: Feel free to add information supporting of refuting. NO OPINIONS! NO MEMORIES! Only data.
If you want to gather current data, turn on logs in your eqclient.ini file. The data will be in the log file, character's name. When you run your test, cast 500 times each spell you are testing. When you post it here, provide your:
Wisdom / Intelligence / Charisma / Dexterity
This is an article about fizzle rates. The actual complaint was regarding the druid spell Breath of Ro being too high, but it shows data collected form Feb 2002.
500 tests of Breath of Ro (level 53 evoc), Winged Death (level 54 conjuration), and Wildfire (level 59 evoc). Tested by chain casting using duck (walking into a wall didn't work for me...if I wasn't moving, then spell would go off...
BoR: 40 fizzles, 8.0%
Winged Death: 13 fizzles, 2.6%
Wildfire: 14 fizzles, 2.8%
Spirit of Eagle: 92 fizzles, 18.4%
Circle of Seasons: 16 fizzles, 3.2%
Circle of Summer: 87 fizzles, 17.4%
Circle of Winter: 146 fizzles, 29.2%
With a 3% fizzle rate, the odds of seeing a double fizzle are 0.09%. Or about 1 in 1000. Which is what I was seeing with my low fizzle rate spells.
With a 10% fizzle rate, the odds of seeing a double fizzle are 1%, or 1 in 100. You should be seeing a number of double fizzles sequences with these spells. The odds of a triple fizzle sequence are 0.1%, or 1 in 1000.
With a 30% fizzle rate, the odds of seeing a double fizzle are 9%, or 1 in 10. The odds of a triple fizzle are 2.7%. The odds of a quadruple fizzle are 0.08%, or about 1 in 1000.
Abjuration skill 235
Alteration skill 235
Evocation skill 235
Spec: Abjuration 50
Spec: Alteration 200
Spec: Evocation 50
Evocation spells (100 casts each):
Breath of Ro, level 52, 40 fizzles (40%) <---- Yikes!
Scoriae, level 54, 3 fizzles (3%)
Alteration spells (100 casts each):
Spirit of Eagle, level 54, 2 fizzles (2%)
Chloroblast, level 55, 3 fizzles (3%)
Abjuration spells (100 casts each):
Circle of Winter, level 51, 25 fizzles (25%)
Circle of Summer, level 52, 20 fizzles (20%)
Legacy of Spike, level 51, 3 fizzles (3%)
Here's the original Q&A from Verant:
Q: How do spell fizzles (and missed notes on songs) work?
A: When you cast a spell, we call a fizzle check. There is always a 5% chance of succeeding (regardless of how low your appropriate skill is) and a 5% chance of failure (regardless of how high your appropriate skill is). What modifies a fizzle check are:
1. Your appropriate skill (Abjuration, Evocation, Brass, Wind, etc.).
2. Your primary statistic (Intelligence for Magi, Wisdom for Priests, Dexterity and Charisma for Bards).
3. The difficulty of the spell.
4. The level of the spell.
When you gain a new rank of spells, any spell that you cast of that rank has a 20% chance of fizzling.
This assumes that:
1. Your appropriate skill (Evocation, for example) is at its maximum value
2. That you have a minimum of 75 in your appropriate statistic (Intelligence, etc.)
3. That we did not set the difficulty of the spell to less then average (some spells we assign a lower difficulty, making them easier to cast - to date, we have not made any spells with higher difficulty).
4. If your appropriate statistic is greater then 75 (Intelligence, Wisdom, etc.), we reduce your fizzle percent by 1% for every X points of your statistic above 75.
Each spell assumes that you have a skill equal to (5 x level you got the spell). A Wizard getting Bind Affinity (Wizard gets her 4th rank spells at level 12, so 5 x 12 = 60) would have that spell assuming that she had a 60 Alteration skill for purposes of casting. With a 60 skill in Alteration (the appropriate skill) and a 75 intelligence, our wizard would have an 80% chance of successfully casting Bind Affinity. For every skill point that our Wizard has above 60, the percent chance of fizzling goes down by 1%, to a minimum of a 5% chance of fizzling. Thus, three levels (15 skill points) after our Wizard gets Bind Affinity, she will be able to max out her Alteration and have a mere 5% chance of fizzling the spell.
A high intelligence would help her to max out her ability to cast Bind Affinity without fizzling earlier.
In 2011, on another EMU it was determined: "There was an additional, unnecessary level of difficulty that was subjectively added to the checks, and it was based around hard-coded skill caps that were inaccurate for timeline. This created a higher fizzle rate in the mid-level range, that disappeared as the per-level skill caps approached the hard-coded value. This is fixed, pending update."
Not saying that means anything here, just that our code could have a similar issue.
Q: Also with this change the resistance rates of lower level spells would need to be placed on a sliding scale. So the lower the spell rank less chance of the mob resisting the spell.
We already have a bit of this built in. If you use a lower level spell, your chance of fizzle is almost 0, you do that spells max damage, and we knock a bit off of the creatures resistance. Not a lot, but a bit.